Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
66.8 mana
Total volume
1.1K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Sheikh Hasina end her exile and return to Bangladesh in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 5:58 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 1.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 66.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
1.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
41%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
8
over 59 days
Largest order
415.7 mana
1K mana traded across these 8 trades (last 59 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$1K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been living in exile in India since being ousted during a August 2024 student uprising. While she announced her desire to end her exile and return to Bangladesh by late 2026, doing so carries massive stakes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been living in exile in India since being ousted during a August 2024 student uprising. While she announced her desire to end her exile and return to Bangladesh by late 2026, doing so carries massive stakes. A special tribunal in Dhaka sentenced Hasina to death in absentia over human rights violations and genocide tied to the violent 2024 protest crackdown. Bangladesh's current interim government has banned her party, and authorities confirmed she will face immediate arrest if she sets foot in the country. Hasina frames her return as a duty to her supporters, while critics maintain she faces prison or execution upon arrival. This market resolves YES if Hasina physically enters Bangladesh by December 31, 2026, and NO if legal risks and political instability keep her in exile.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 6:05 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
11Low
Where the price path tends to go next498 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.124H-0.17D-0.1
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