Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
41 mana
Total volume
231.9 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Roger Marshall win the Kansas senate election by 11% or more?
As of Oct 12, 2026, 3:18 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 12.1% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 41 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
12.1%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — though most recent trading came from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
65%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
2
Trades
3
over 2 days
Largest order
150 mana
231.9 mana traded across these 3 trades (last 2 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$231.9 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if Roger Marshall’s winning margin is 11% or more. Winning margin is Roger Marshall’s Vote percent, minus the 2nd place candidates vote percent.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if Roger Marshall’s winning margin is 11% or more. Winning margin is Roger Marshall’s Vote percent, minus the 2nd place candidates vote percent. Markets resolves no if Roger Marshall loses, or wins by 10.9999% or less. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Kansas
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 3:20 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
15Low
Where the price path tends to go next1181 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
41 mana
Liquidity
1K mana
Total volume
231.9 mana
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 12.1%
- Resolves
- Nov 3, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0