ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDevelopingUpdated 7m ago

Will Republicans surprisingly win the house in 2026 midterms?

As of Oct 25, 2026, 4:33 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 6.0% (down from 9.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 52 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
6.0%
−3 percentage points
over 24 hours9.0% → 6.0%

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

52 mana

Total volume

52 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
96%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

2

Trades

3

over 16 min

Largest order

50 mana

52 mana traded across these 3 trades (last 16 min).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$52 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 3.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (9.0% → 6.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 30, 2026 at 6:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 25, 4:40 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±24 pts.

One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

high classifier confidence
One big trader

Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.

  • One participant drove 96% of recent flow
  • Move not broadly confirmed (2 participants)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
15Low
Where the price path tends to go next553 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-3.024H-3.07D-3.0

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