Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
22.1 mana
Total volume
179.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Reckless Ben's video on Bricks and Minifigs have 10 million or more views before the end of 2026?
As of Oct 17, 2026, 4:50 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 53.3% (down from 66.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 22.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
53.3%
−12.9 percentage points
over 24 hours66.2% → 53.3%
Big move, weak backingNot live — snapshot Oct 17, 4:50 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
30%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
7
Trades
16
over 135 days
Largest order
50 mana
172.9 mana traded across these 16 trades (last 135 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$172.9 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wscQpkcwgNU
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=wscQpkcwgNU
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 12.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (66.2% → 53.3%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 5:25 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next527 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~6h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-12.97D-12.9
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