ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noiseUpdated 6m ago

Will PredictionMarketTrader's Combo Hit (Midterm Senate Parlay)? [Kalshi]

As of Oct 13, 2026, 4:13 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 45.4% (up from 41.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 1.3K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
45.4%
+4.4 percentage points
over 24 hours41.0% → 45.4%
Big move, weak backing

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

Medium

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

1.3K mana

Total volume

1.3K mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
62%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

5

Trades

8

over 2h

Largest order

500 mana

1.2K mana traded across these 8 trades (last 2h).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$1.2K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 4.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (41.0% → 45.4%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 5:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 13, 4:20 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±28 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 4.4 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
9Low
Where the price path tends to go next936 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H+4.424H+4.47D+4.4

Related markets

Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

13%YESTrust 78
Polymarket$59.6K 24h

Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

8%YESTrust 56
Polymarket$38.3K 24h

Will oil be below $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?

8%YESTrust 74
Polymarket$57.8K 24h

Will oil be below $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

8%YESTrust 78
Polymarket$85.7K 24h

Will Alabama pass the mandatory pledge of allegiance in schools ballot measure in 2026?

95%YESTrust 41
Manifold96.8 mana 24h