Will One Nation win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election in Australia?
As of Oct 1, 2026, 10:42 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 20.8% (up from 19.6% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ73.4 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
The next federal election to elect the 49th Parliament of Australia must occur before the 23rd of September, 2028. If One Nation gets a majority of seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, this market will resolve YES.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The next federal election to elect the 49th Parliament of Australia must occur before the 23rd of September, 2028. If One Nation gets a majority of seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise NO. To be clear, because they have to win a majority of seats for this market to resolve to YES, even if they form a minority government (e.g. as Labor did in 2010) with the help of crossbenchers declaring support on confidence and supply, this market will still resolve to NO.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesMay 31, 2028 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 1, 10:47 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ73.4
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ1.9K
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 20.8%
- 7-day range
- 19.6% – 20.8%
- Resolves
- May 31, 2028