Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
55.4 mana
Total volume
80.4 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will One Nation’s primary vote share in the next federal election exceed 15%?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 3:11 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 56.0% (up from 53.8% 24 hours earlier). It had 55.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
56.0%
+2.2 percentage points
over 24 hours53.8% → 56.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
56%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
3
Trades
4
over 30h
Largest order
30 mana
80.4 mana traded across these 4 trades (last 30h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$80.4 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Pauline Hanson and One Nation have been consistently vocal in their support for Israel (wearing Israeli flag scarves in the Senate, condemning Hamas, criticising Labor’s position, etc.). Labor currently holds government and has taken a more critical stance toward Israel at times.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Pauline Hanson and One Nation have been consistently vocal in their support for Israel (wearing Israeli flag scarves in the Senate, condemning Hamas, criticising Labor’s position, etc.). Labor currently holds government and has taken a more critical stance toward Israel at times. This market resolves YES if One Nation’s national primary vote at the next federal election is above 15%. It resolves NO if it is 15% or below. Resolution source: official Australian Electoral Commission results.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesMay 31, 2028 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 3:18 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
15Low
Where the price path tends to go next431 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~21h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+2.27D+2.2