Will Ohio Issue 3 (voter photo ID amendment) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Ohio Issue 3 (Voters to present photo identification in order to vote (Proposed by Joint Resolution of the General Assembly; to enact Section 5 of Article V of the Ohio Constitution)) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the issue (ballot: 'A majority yes vote is required for the adoption of Section 5'; Ohio Const. art. XVI, sec. 1) Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Constitution would require approved government-issued photo ID to vote (unexpired Ohio license/state ID, US passport/card, military/National Guard/VA ID), with a law-defined alternative for sincere religious objectors. NO: No constitutional change; Ohio's existing statutory photo-ID requirement (since 2023) remains in law. Results: resolves on the result certified by Ohio Secretary of State (official statewide canvass). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.ohiosos.gov/assets/2026-11-statewide-issue-3-report.pdf