Will North Carolina's photo ID for all voting methods amendment be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if North Carolina (Require Photo ID for All Voters) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the question (N.C. Const. art. XIII §4) Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Constitution would require photo identification from all voters before voting, not just in-person voters (official LSO summary). NO: Constitutional photo-ID mandate stays limited to in-person voting; existing statutes unchanged. Results: resolves on the result certified by NC State Board of Elections (amendment effective upon its certification). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 80% is a starting seed, not a forecast. Basis: Elon University Poll, Aug 21-31, 2026: 63% favor / 25% oppose / 12% unsure (https://www.elon.edu/u/news/?p=1056336). Official source: https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/Elections/2026/Candidate%20Filing/statewide_referendums_20261103.pdf