Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1.5K mana
Total volume
2.7K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Nintendo deliver the Ocarina of Time remake in 2026 as promised?
As of Oct 30, 2026, 3:15 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 98.5% (up from 97.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 1.5K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
98.5%
+1.4 percentage points
over 24 hours97.1% → 98.5%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
55%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
8
Trades
10
over 121 days
Largest order
1K mana
2.7K mana traded across these 10 trades (last 121 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$2.7K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Nintendo has missed deadlines before. In 2021, they announced a 2022 release window for Tears of the Kingdom, which was later pushed to May 2023.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Nintendo has missed deadlines before. In 2021, they announced a 2022 release window for Tears of the Kingdom, which was later pushed to May 2023. Nintendo has promised 2026 for the release, and the turnaround to that deadline is shorter than for TotK. Will they hit it? Resolves based on an average American consumer gaining access to the full game, less any bonus content/DLC/etc.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 30, 3:23 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
24Low
Where the price path tends to go next446 observed
- Illiquid / quiet97%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~3d
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Quote-driven.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+1.47D+1.4
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