Will New Mexico Bond Question 1 (senior citizen facility bonds) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if New Mexico Bond Question 1 (The 2026 Capital Projects General Obligation Bond Act authorizes the issuance and sale of senior citizen facility improvement, construction and equipment acquisition bonds.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the question (N.M. Const. art. IX §8) Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: 'For' authorizes the $21.58M senior facility bonds. NO: 'Against' denies authority to issue these bonds. Results: resolves on the result certified by New Mexico State Canvassing Board. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.sos.nm.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026-Voter-Guide-English.pdf