Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
5K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
537.4 mana
Total volume
537.4 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Nate Silver be right about the Senate?
As of Nov 2, 2026, 6:52 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 19.8% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 537.4 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 5K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
19.8%
Little changed over 24 hours
Resolving soon
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
57%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
10
Trades
13
over 4h
Largest order
150 mana
537.4 mana traded across these 13 trades (last 4h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$537.4 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 2, 6:56 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Resolving soon
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
- Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next1122 observed
- Choppy / mean-reverting95%
- Stable consensus3%
- Trend continuation2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~1h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-0.624H-0.27D-0.2