Israel closes its airspace by September 30?70%60.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?50%9.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?34%15.5Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?24%10.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 5?12%6.5Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in September?69%15.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%10.0Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?49%14.0Bitcoin Up or Down on September 5?65%4.0Did Claude just solve navier stokes??20%5.4Fed rate hike in 2026?72%10.0Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026?11%6.0Will Donald Trump order a new U.S. attack on Iran by the end of 2026?86%21.0Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?50%8.0Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?93%4.6Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?4%3.8
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 74d ago

Will my "Be My Fashion Consultant" event at Manifest cause me to acquire at least two clothing items that excite me?

Final price
59.5%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 59.5%.

Final market price
59.5%
Event deadline
June 22, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will my "Be My Fashion Consultant" event at Manifest cause me to acquire at least two clothing items that excite me? The final Manifold price was 59.5%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 59.5%.

Market data as of
June 23, 2026 at 2:08 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:05 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 22, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
74d ago

What this market actually measures

Saturday 10-10:30pm. Very experimental!

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Saturday 10-10:30pm. Very experimental! https://waypoint.lighthaven.space/e/manifest-2026/schedule/087e7a46-10c7-468a-86c9-f60e4428b559 General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ436.9

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
59.5%
Resolves
Jun 22, 2026

Related markets