Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
1.9K mana
Total volume
2K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Montana CI-132 (nonpartisan judicial elections) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?
As of Nov 4, 2026, 9:17 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 93.0% (up from 77.8% 24 hours earlier). It had 1.9K mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
93.0%
+15.2 percentage points
over 24 hours77.8% → 93.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: healthy trading volume and market depth.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
One account dominates
87%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
12
over 29 days
Largest order
200 mana
917.9 mana traded across these 12 trades (last 29 days).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
Recent trade activity$917.9 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if Montana CI-132 (CI-132 amends the Montana Constitution to require that judicial elections remain nonpartisan.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the question (Mont. Const.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if Montana CI-132 (CI-132 amends the Montana Constitution to require that judicial elections remain nonpartisan.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the question (Mont. Const. art. XIV §9) Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Judicial elections must stay nonpartisan under the constitution. NO: Nonpartisan judicial elections remain a matter of statute that the Legislature could change. Results: resolves on the result certified by Montana Secretary of State / State Board of Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://sosmt.gov/wp-content/uploads/wpfd/preview_files/CI-132(3a70e31b2fe58baa619ffb1d9b23c8ff).pdf
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 15.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours (77.8% → 93.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 18, 2026 at 2:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 4, 9:26 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 87% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (5 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
13Low
Where the price path tends to go next739 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Thin-liquidity spike1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~5h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+15.27D+15.2