ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsDevelopingUpdated 6m ago

Will Mitch McConnell be alive on January 3, 2027? (End of his Senate term)

As of Oct 16, 2026, 3:11 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 91.8% (up from 88.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 65.8 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability

91.8%

+3.1 percentage points

over 24 hours88.7% → 91.8%

Ends Jan 3, 2027 · 79 days

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

65.8 mana

Total volume

520 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts

36%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

Trades

103

over 74 days

Largest order

50 mana

509.4 mana traded across these 103 trades (last 74 days).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$509.4 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market resolves to YES if Senator Mitch McConnell is alive at 12:00 PM Eastern Time on January 3, 2027 (the constitutional end of his Senate term). If he passes away at any point before this exact date and time, the market resolves to NO. Resolution based on consensus reporting from major news organizations (e.g., AP News, Reuters, New York Times). (Identical market to: source market)

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 3.1 percentage points over the last 24 hours (88.7% → 91.8%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 3, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 3:17 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence

Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability

Reliability score

18Low

Where the price path tends to go next431 observed

Illiquid / quiet98%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~15h

PredictabilityStable

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+3.17D+3.1