Will Missouri Amendment 7 (permanent fund to replace state taxes) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Missouri Amendment 7 (Shall the Missouri Constitution be amended to establish a permanent public endowment fund to support state government instead of taxing Missouri residents, prohibit the General Assembly from appropriating or diverting the fund, and eliminate state-imposed taxes once the fund generates sufficient revenue to replace them?) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the amendment (Mo. Const. art. XII, sec. 2(b)); effective 30 days after election. Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Fair ballot language: establishes the Show-Me Prosperity Fund to eliminate state-imposed taxes; no appropriation until Treasurer certifies earnings suffice; 3% annual draw cap; bars re-enacting eliminated taxes, except legislature may tax/appropriate if fund becomes insolvent or fails. NO: Fair ballot language: no permanent public endowment fund is established. Results: resolves on the result certified by Missouri Secretary of State / Board of State Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.sos.mo.gov/petitions/2026BallotMeasures