Will Minnesota's permanent school fund distributions amendment be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Minnesota (Increasing funding to school districts. Shall the Minnesota Constitution be amended to increase the funding going to all school districts from the permanent school fund, which is a fund that supports school districts without raising individual income or property taxes, effective July 1, 2027?) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of ALL voters who cast a ballot in the election, not just those voting on the question (Minn. Const. art. IX, sec. 1) YES votes must exceed 50% of total ballots cast in the Nov 3 election; a blank or skipped answer has the same effect as NO (SOS: 'Failure to vote on a constitutional amendment will have the same effect as voting no on the amendment'). Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Amends Art. XI sec. 8 so the fund is managed as a perpetual resource preserving purchasing power, with distributions set by law; linked statutes take effect July 1, 2027 (4.5% annual distributable amount). NO: Art. XI sec. 8 unchanged; the fund keeps being invested for maximum return consistent with perpetuity, with income-based distributions. Results: resolves on the result certified by Minnesota State Canvassing Board. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.sos.mn.gov/elections-voting/whats-on-my-ballot/constitutional-amendments