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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 66d ago

Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?

Final price
53.7%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 53.7%.

Final market price
53.7%
Event deadline
June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month? The final Manifold price was 53.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 53.7%.

Market data as of
July 1, 2026 at 7:50 AM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:05 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
66d ago

What this market actually measures

This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline current-dollar U.S. personal income increased by 0.4% or more month-over-month.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline current-dollar U.S. personal income increased by 0.4% or more month-over-month. Use the headline personal income monthly percent change in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release. Resolve NO if the initial headline value is +0.3% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use disposable personal income, real personal income, PCE spending, PCE price indexes, personal outlays, saving rate, wage-and-salary subcomponents, annualized dollar changes, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the May 2026 headline personal-income month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_disposable_personal_income_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_pce_billions_increase": 111.1, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "march_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.5, "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Current-dollar personal income, headline monthly percent change", "related_non_duplicates": ["Headline and core PCE inflation markets are not duplicates.", "Disposable personal income, PCE spending, personal outlays, saving-rate, wage-and-salary, real-income, and price-index variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA's release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026", "threshold": "Increase of 0.4% or more from the prior month"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA personal income data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/index.php/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ173.1

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
53.7%
Resolves
Jun 25, 2026

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