Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 53.7%.
- Final market price
- 53.7%
- Event deadline
- June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will May 2026 U.S. personal income rise at least 0.4% month-over-month? The final Manifold price was 53.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 53.7%.
- Market data as of
- July 1, 2026 at 7:50 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 25, 2026 at 8:25 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 112d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline current-dollar U.S. personal income increased by 0.4% or more month-over-month.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026 reports that headline current-dollar U.S. personal income increased by 0.4% or more month-over-month. Use the headline personal income monthly percent change in the initial May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release. Resolve NO if the initial headline value is +0.3% or lower, zero, or negative. Do not use disposable personal income, real personal income, PCE spending, PCE price indexes, personal outlays, saving rate, wage-and-salary subcomponents, annualized dollar changes, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the May 2026 headline personal-income month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by July 1, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_disposable_personal_income_percent": -0.1, "april_2026_pce_billions_increase": 111.1, "april_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.0, "april_2026_personal_saving_rate_percent": 2.6, "march_2026_personal_income_percent": 0.5, "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Current-dollar personal income, headline monthly percent change", "related_non_duplicates": ["Headline and core PCE inflation markets are not duplicates.", "Disposable personal income, PCE spending, personal outlays, saving-rate, wage-and-salary, real-income, and price-index variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BEA's release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 for June 25, 2026 at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for May 2026", "threshold": "Increase of 0.4% or more from the prior month"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA personal income data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/income-saving/personal-income - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/index.php/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026