Will May 2026 U.S. job openings be at least 7.5 million?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 52.3%.
- Final market price
- 52.3%
- Event deadline
- June 30, 2026 at 9:55 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will May 2026 U.S. job openings be at least 7.5 million? The final Manifold price was 52.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 52.3%.
- Market data as of
- July 1, 2026 at 7:50 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 30, 2026 at 9:55 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 112d ago
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey release for May 2026 reports total nonfarm job openings of at least 7.5 million, seasonally adjusted. Use the headline total job openings level, in thousands, from the first May 2026 JOLTS release.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey release for May 2026 reports total nonfarm job openings of at least 7.5 million, seasonally adjusted. Use the headline total job openings level, in thousands, from the first May 2026 JOLTS release. A value of 7,500 thousand or higher resolves YES. A value of 7,499 thousand or lower resolves NO. Do not use hires, quits, layoffs and discharges, total separations, rates, industry subseries, state JOLTS, the Employment Situation payrolls or unemployment-rate releases, non-seasonally-adjusted values, forecast consensus, or later revisions unless BLS corrects the initial May 2026 release before resolution. If the May 2026 JOLTS release is delayed, wait for the first BLS release containing the May 2026 headline total job-openings level unless there is no such release by July 8, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_headline_text": "The number of job openings increased to 7.6 million in April.", "april_2026_total_job_openings_thousands": 7618, "march_2026_total_job_openings_thousands": 6887, "release": "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-06-02"}, "metric": "Total nonfarm job openings, level, seasonally adjusted", "related_non_duplicates": ["Employment Situation payrolls or unemployment-rate markets are not duplicates.", "JOLTS hires, quits, layoffs, separations, rates, state JOLTS, and industry-subseries markets are not duplicates.", "Later-revision and forecast-consensus variants are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "BLS 2026 schedule lists Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for May 2026 on 2026-06-30 at 10:00 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey release for May 2026", "source_fetch_caveat": "BLS pages returned HTTP 403 to raw Python urllib from this host; official BLS pages were verified via browser/search tooling before creation.", "threshold": "7.5 million job openings or more"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - BLS JOLTS news release: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm - BLS JOLTS Table A: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.a.htm - BLS 2026 release schedule: https://www.bls.gov/schedule/2026/