Will Louisiana Amendment 3 (post-conviction bail ban for child offenses) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Louisiana Amendment 3 (Do you support an amendment to prohibit a defendant from being released on any post-conviction bail if the defendant is convicted of an aggravated offense against a minor child? (Adds Article I, Section 18(C))) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of electors voting on the amendment statewide (La. Const. art. XIII §1(C)); no local-majority requirement. Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: People convicted of an aggravated offense (R.S. 15:541) against a minor cannot be released on post-conviction bail. NO: Post-conviction bail for these offenders remains governed by existing law. Results: resolves on the result certified by Secretary of State verifies, compiles and promulgates returns (La. R.S. 18:574(D)); Governor proclaims adoption (Const. art. XIII §1(C)).. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.sos.la.gov/media/jo2die1s/proposed-constitutional-amendments-2026-nov.pdf