As of Oct 11, 2026, 11:05 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 53.5% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 100 mana of pool liquidity.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — the venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market, traded by a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
0 mana
Total volume
171.2 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
5
Trades
18
over 62 days
Largest order
80 mana
164.5 mana traded across these 18 trades (last 62 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria The market resolves to YES if Loreen (Lorine Talhaoui) is officially declared the winner of Melodifestivalen 2027. The market resolves to NO if another participant wins the competition, or if the 2027 selection concludes without Loreen winning (including if she does not participate or compete).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria The market resolves to YES if Loreen (Lorine Talhaoui) is officially declared the winner of Melodifestivalen 2027. The market resolves to NO if another participant wins the competition, or if the 2027 selection concludes without Loreen winning (including if she does not participate or compete). Resolution will be based on official announcements from Sveriges Television (SVT) on the official Mellopedia database or SVT Melodifestivalen portal. Credible secondary tracking on Eurovisionworld may also be used for verification. If Melodifestivalen 2027 does not take place or is canceled without a winner selected by June 1, 2027, this market will resolve to N/A. Background Loreen is a historic two-time Eurovision Song Contest winner, having won the grand final for Sweden in 2012 with "Euphoria" and in 2023 with "Tattoo". In August 2026, she announced the rescheduling of her upcoming European tour to Spring 2027. This scheduling shift sparked immediate speculation among Eurovision fans and media outlets regarding a potential Melodifestivalen comeback attempt to secure a third Eurovision appearance. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 12:27 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
0 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
171.2 mana