Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
500 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
98.3 mana
Total volume
431.8 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Ken Paxton and James Talarico debate?
As of Oct 18, 2026, 6:00 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 18.0% (down from 21.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 98.3 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 500 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
18.0%
−3 percentage points
over 24 hours21.0% → 18.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
MediumWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no threshold or deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
53%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
14
over 45 days
Largest order
42.5 mana
169.5 mana traded across these 14 trades (last 45 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$169.5 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves Yes if they both participate in a debate at the same time for the 2026 US Senate election in Texas before election day.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves Yes if they both participate in a debate at the same time for the 2026 US Senate election in Texas before election day.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (21.0% → 18.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 18, 6:07 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
6Low
Where the price path tends to go next574 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~22h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-3.024H-3.07D-3.0
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