As of Oct 11, 2026, 11:48 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 5.8% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 100 mana of pool liquidity.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — the venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market — though most recent trading came from one account.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
0 mana
Total volume
748.3 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
7
Trades
12
over 17h
Largest order
150 mana
419 mana traded across these 12 trades (last 17h).
One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolves YES if a correct, complete, unconditional proof is publicly available by June 30, 2027, 23:59 UTC showing that two n-bit nonnegative integers can be multiplied exactly in worst-case O(n) time on a deterministic multitape Turing machine. The machine must have a fixed finite alphabet and a fixed finite number of one-dimensional tapes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolves YES if a correct, complete, unconditional proof is publicly available by June 30, 2027, 23:59 UTC showing that two n-bit nonnegative integers can be multiplied exactly in worst-case O(n) time on a deterministic multitape Turing machine. The machine must have a fixed finite alphabet and a fixed finite number of one-dimensional tapes. The bound includes reading the inputs, writing the binary product, and any preprocessing. Arbitrarily large constant factors are allowed. Expected-time, average-case, bounded-error, approximate, quantum, or unit-cost arithmetic results do not count unless they also establish this bound in the specified model. Preprints count if the proof is subsequently accepted as correct by the relevant research community; verification may occur after the deadline. Substantial missing arguments supplied after the deadline do not count. Otherwise resolves NO. A NO resolution means no qualifying proof was public by the deadline, not that linear-time multiplication is impossible.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 12:24 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
0 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
748.3 mana