ManifoldPlay moneyPoliticsLikely noiseUpdated 12m ago

Will Indiana Public Question 2 (city and town court judge residency) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

As of Nov 3, 2026, 4:57 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 88.0% (up from 80.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 643.7 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
88.0%
+8 percentage points
over 24 hours80.0% → 88.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

1K mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

643.7 mana

Total volume

711.1 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
74%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

3

Trades

5

over 27 days

Largest order

50 mana

67.4 mana traded across these 5 trades (last 27 days).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$67.4 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market resolves YES if Indiana Public Question 2 (Shall the Constitution of the State of Indiana be amended to permit the judge of a city or town court to reside in: (1) the county in which the court is located; or (2) the bordering county closest to the city or town in which the court is located? (Article 6, Section 6)) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval r…

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market resolves YES if Indiana Public Question 2 (Shall the Constitution of the State of Indiana be amended to permit the judge of a city or town court to reside in: (1) the county in which the court is located; or (2) the bordering county closest to the city or town in which the court is located? (Article 6, Section 6)) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Majority of votes cast on the public question (Ind. Const. art. 16, sec. 1) Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Amends Art. 6 sec. 6 to allow these judges to reside in the court's county or the closest bordering county. NO: Current residency requirement for city and town court judges stays. Results: resolves on the result certified by Indiana Secretary of State / Election Division (state canvass). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://www.in.gov/counties/noble/files/2026-general-election-sample-balllots/P2OUT.pdf

Why the odds moved

The probability rose 8.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (80.0% → 88.0%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 18, 2026 at 2:59 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 3, 5:09 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 8.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
25Low
Where the price path tends to go next352 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~10h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H+8.024H+8.07D+8.0

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