Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
64.9 mana
Total volume
180.6 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will India Qualify for World Test Championship 2026 ?
As of Oct 17, 2026, 5:18 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 40.0% (up from 27.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 64.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
40.0%
+12.6 percentage points
over 24 hours27.4% → 40.0%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (12.6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
31%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
11
over 130 days
Largest order
46 mana
146.6 mana traded across these 11 trades (last 130 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$146.6 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the Indian Men's Cricket Team qualifies for the Final of the 2025–2027 ICC World Test Championship (WTC). It will resolve to NO if India fails to qualify.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if the Indian Men's Cricket Team qualifies for the Final of the 2025–2027 ICC World Test Championship (WTC). It will resolve to NO if India fails to qualify. Definition of Qualification: According to official ICC rules, the top two teams in the league stage standings—determined by the highest Percentage of Points (PCT)—advance to the WTC Final. India qualifies if they secure one of these top two spots at the conclusion of the league stage matches. Source of Truth: The official standings on the ICC World Test Championship Standings page or official ICC media releases. Timing & Terminology Clarification: Although the user prompt specifies "World Test Championship 2026", there is no WTC final scheduled for 2026. The third WTC cycle finished in June 2025, and the ongoing fourth cycle runs from June 2025 to June 2027. This market resolves strictly based on whether India qualifies for the Final of the active 2025–2027 cycle. Edge Cases: If the 2025–2027 WTC cycle is cancelled or suspended indefinitely without an official final or standings conclusion, this market will resolve to N/A. If the league stage matches are delayed but still played, the market will remain open until official qualification is finalized by the ICC. Background The ICC World Test Championship is a biennial tournament for Test cricket. The 2023–2025 cycle concluded in June 2025 with South Africa defeating Australia. The current 2025–2027 cycle ends with a Final at Lord's in June 2027. As of June 2026, India is facing a difficult path to qualification. Following a 0–2 home series sweep defeat against South Africa in late 2025, India dropped to 6th in the standings with a points percentage (PCT) of 48.15% (4 wins, 4 losses, and 1 draw out of 9 matches). With 9 matches remaining in their cycle—including away series against Sri Lanka and New Zealand, and a home Border-Gavaskar Trophy against Australia—India realistically needs to win 7 to 8 of their remaining games to secure a top-two finish.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 12.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (27.4% → 40.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 5:28 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 12.6 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
9Low
Where the price path tends to go next619 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~5h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+12.624H+12.67D+12.6
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