Will Idaho Proposition 1 (reproductive freedom and privacy act) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Idaho Proposition 1 (Proposition One: Reproductive Freedom & Privacy Act) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the measure (initiated statute) Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Creates a right to abortion before viability and post-viability in medical emergencies; provider protections; statutory reproductive privacy right (pamphlet). NO: Keeps current law banning abortion except to prevent death and early-pregnancy reported rape/incest (pamphlet). Results: resolves on the result certified by Idaho Secretary of State / State Board of Canvassers. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://archive.voteidaho.gov/download/2026_Voter_Pamphlet.pdf