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ManifoldPoliticsUpdated 65d ago

Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus)

Final price
53.1%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 53.1%.

Final market price
53.1%
Event deadline
June 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day until July? (Ṁ10 Bonus) The final Manifold price was 53.1%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 53.1%.

Market data as of
July 1, 2026 at 11:55 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:04 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
65d ago

What this market actually measures

This market is about whether I will leave the house before 11 a.m. every day from 21 June to 30 June.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market is about whether I will leave the house before 11 a.m. every day from 21 June to 30 June. YES if I leave the house before 11 a.m. every day within the timeframe and stay outside for at least 10 minutes. NO if I don't, for any reason whatsoever. Bonus: Every unique human trader gets a one-time Ṁ10 bonus at market close. Additional notes: The bonus is meant to boost engagement. More engagement = more motivation. Thanks for participating. ❤

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ339.6

Category
Politics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
53.1%
Resolves
Jun 30, 2026

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