ManifoldPlay moneyMacro / FedDevelopingUpdated 22m ago

Will I get demoted to Bornze in Season 43?

As of Nov 3, 2026, 4:47 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 33.2% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 88.1 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability

33.2%

Little changed over 24 hours

Ends Dec 1, 2026 · 27 daysNot live — snapshot Nov 3, 4:47 PM ET

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

88.1 mana

Total volume

118.1 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

A few accounts

58%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

Trades

over 22h

Largest order

50 mana

118.1 mana traded across these 5 trades (last 22h).

A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.

Recent trade activity$118.1 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Whoops I meant "demoted to Bronze". Resolves YES if I get demoted to Bronze, NO if I stay in Silver or get promoted to a rank above Silver and below Masters, and N/A if I get promoted straight to Masters

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

What could move this market next?

The market's deadline arrivesDecember 1, 2026 at 2:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Nov 3, 5:09 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±18 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence

Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability

Reliability score

18Low

Where the price path tends to go next352 observed

Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —

PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0