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ManifoldCryptoUpdated 66d ago

Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive?

Final price
55.3%
0.0 pts
past 24h
Resolved YES

This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 55.3%.

Final market price
55.3%
Event deadline
June 30, 2026 at 6:59 AM ET
Venue status
resolved

ProbCast Reliability Summary

Will I get accepted to the August Iliad Intensive? The final Manifold price was 55.3%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 55.3%.

Market data as of
June 30, 2026 at 11:50 PM ET
ProbCast assessment generated
September 5, 2026 at 1:05 AM ET
Source
Manifold
Event deadline
June 30, 2026 at 6:59 AM ET
Market status
Resolved
Data updated
66d ago

What this market actually measures

I am a master's CS student at a top 100 uni in europe, accepted for a PhD at a similar uni this year. My focus is generally in formal methods (math formalizations and proofs for programs), I have 1 co-authored published paper, and currently work as an research assistant.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

I am a master's CS student at a top 100 uni in europe, accepted for a PhD at a similar uni this year. My focus is generally in formal methods (math formalizations and proofs for programs), I have 1 co-authored published paper, and currently work as an research assistant. The Iliad Intensive is a taught bootcamp on AI alignment, the August iteration taking place in Lighthaven for 3 weeks with a $5k stipend for travel and accomodation. The organizrs said on LW that Applicants will be selected on the basis of estimated mathematical strength. and In the April edition we have a cohort of 16 people among 40 applicants. If we receive sufficiently many promising applications and our office space allows, we may have cohorts of up to 30 people, or maybe eventually even more down the road. They seem to be doing more promotion for the following iterations, which probably means more competition. https://www.iliad.ac/programs.html [link preview]https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/moG6k8mJiGvH4zc8j/what-is-the-iliad-intensive I will probably answer most relevant questions in the comments. Resolves whenever I hear back on my application, presumably by the end of June, otherwise the date will be extended.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ287

Category
Crypto
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
55.3%
Resolves
Jun 30, 2026

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