Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
30 mana
Total volume
30 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will I ever own more than 1 h100 of compute
As of Oct 17, 2026, 8:58 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 55.2% (up from 45.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 30 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
55.2%
+9.9 percentage points
over 24 hours45.2% → 55.2%
Stale priceNot live — snapshot Oct 17, 8:58 AM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — only a few trades sit behind today's move.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Too few trades
67%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
2
Trades
2
over 12h
Largest order
20 mana
30 mana traded across these 2 trades (last 12h).
Too few recent trades to say who is setting this price.
Recent trade activity$30 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 9.9 percentage points over the last 24 hours (45.2% → 55.1%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2028 at 1:55 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 17, 12:38 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±32 pts.
Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Stale price
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
- Price has not updated recently (stale)
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
10Low
Where the price path tends to go next628 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H+9.97D+9.9