Will I drop 4.4 pounds in 111 hours and 11 minutes? (I'm 313.0 and down 13 lbs. in 5 weeks.)
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 54.0%.
- Final market price
- 54.0%
- Event deadline
- June 19, 2026 at 10:11 AM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will I drop 4.4 pounds in 111 hours and 11 minutes? (I'm 313.0 and down 13 lbs. in 5 weeks.) The final Manifold price was 54.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 54.0%.
- Market data as of
- June 22, 2026 at 8:23 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 19, 2026 at 10:11 AM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 120d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if my body weight drops to 308.6 lbs or lower within 111 hours and 11 minutes of the start of this challenge (ending at [Creator: insert end date/time]). If my weight is above 308.6 lbs at the deadline, this market resolves to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if my body weight drops to 308.6 lbs or lower within 111 hours and 11 minutes of the start of this challenge (ending at [Creator: insert end date/time]). If my weight is above 308.6 lbs at the deadline, this market resolves to NO. Background I currently weigh 313.0 lbs, down 13 lbs over the last 5 weeks. To resolve this market to YES, I must lose an additional 4.4 lbs over a period of approximately 4.63 days (111 hours and 11 minutes). This represents a target rate of just under 1 lb of weight loss per day. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.