Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
131.5 mana
Total volume
134.5 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will MP (the original creator) consider Sam Altman a grifter by the end of 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, 5:12 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 57.7% (down from 62.1% 24 hours earlier). It had 131.5 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.
Market probability
57.7%
−4.4 percentage points
over 24 hours62.1% → 57.7%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
WeakIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (17.1 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
38%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
6
Trades
42
over 86 days
Largest order
5 mana
134.5 mana traded across these 42 trades (last 86 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$134.5 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI and a former YCombinator president. Right now, I admire him a lot for succeeding with OpenAI, particularly after the work he has done at YCombinator.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Sam Altman is the CEO of OpenAI and a former YCombinator president. Right now, I admire him a lot for succeeding with OpenAI, particularly after the work he has done at YCombinator. It seems he has skill, given he coached many startups, and when he left for the playing field, he crushed it. On the other hand, his endeavors with Worldcoin are adding some cognitive dissonance. Particularly because he's still pushing this in 2023, after the crypto debacle. One would expect that OpenAI is enough fun for one. The fact he made a world tour is so keen on attaching his own image to OpenAI is also weird to my view of him. This market resolves to YES if at any point before the end of 2026, I consider him a grifter: someone without ethics, that is trying to get rich quick, that engages in business endeavors knowingly bad, and so on. I consider Elon Musk a grifter, as also the a16z complex, Chamath, Sacks, SBF, and many others. Resolution note: This market resolves identically to the corresponding source market, including N/A or partial resolutions. Any first-person language refers to that market's creator, not this market's creator.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 4.4 percentage points over the last 24 hours (62.1% → 57.7%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 9:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 27, 5:22 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±34 pts.
Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy
What's happening
high classifier confidence
Reacting to news
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 17.1 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next534 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityLow· half-life ~2h
PredictabilityHigh irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+17.124H-4.47D-4.4
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