Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
50 mana
Total volume
75 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will I be able to hail a driverless Zoox ride in San Francisco by the end of 2027
As of Oct 16, 2026, 2:08 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 48.7% (down from 51.2% 24 hours earlier). It had 50 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
48.7%
−2.5 percentage points
over 24 hours51.2% → 48.7%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — only a few trades sit behind today's move.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.5 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Too few trades
67%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
2
Trades
2
over 3 days
Largest order
50 mana
75 mana traded across these 2 trades (last 3 days).
Too few recent trades to say who is setting this price.
Recent trade activity$75 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Driverless: no safety driver Hail a ride: must be point to point of my choosing within the service area, and not a demo route I will try at least twice before the end of the year if able (if the ride has a safety driver). I don’t expect to take any additional Zoox rides by my own volition, but those would also count if they meet the criteria.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Driverless: no safety driver Hail a ride: must be point to point of my choosing within the service area, and not a demo route I will try at least twice before the end of the year if able (if the ride has a safety driver). I don’t expect to take any additional Zoox rides by my own volition, but those would also count if they meet the criteria. I have an account and am on the waitlist. I have access to Las Vegas rides (as is true for all accounts, I think). I am an Amazon (but not Zoox) employee - this market represents only myself and not my employer, and I have no insider Zoox information.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 2:16 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
One big traderLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
One big trader
Recent movement was driven largely by one participant with little broad follow-through. The move may not represent consensus.
- One participant drove 67% of recent flow
- Move not broadly confirmed (2 participants)
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next550 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~29h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-2.524H-2.57D-2.5
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