Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
170 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
56.5 mana
Total volume
1.5K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will GTA 6 come out on November 19, 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, 10:58 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 94.3% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 56.5 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 170 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
94.3%
Little changed over 24 hours
Not live — snapshot Oct 29, 10:58 PM ET
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with broad trading across many accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Broad participation
27%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
27
Trades
64
over 68 days
Largest order
250 mana
1.5K mana traded across these 64 trades (last 68 days).
Many independent accounts traded — the price reflects a crowd, not one trader.
Recent trade activity$1.5K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Why would I bid? Recently there has been a lot of "leaks" from popular leaker "CYBERLEEK", this has caused the GTA and gaming community to wonder whether or not GTA 6 will be delayed or released early in compensation to these leaks.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Why would I bid? Recently there has been a lot of "leaks" from popular leaker "CYBERLEEK", this has caused the GTA and gaming community to wonder whether or not GTA 6 will be delayed or released early in compensation to these leaks. Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Grand Theft Auto VI (GTA 6) is officially released to the general public on November 19, 2026, in any major global market. If the game's release is delayed to a later date, or if it is launched early on any other date, this market will resolve to NO. REGULAR LIQUIDITY UPDATES.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 19, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 29, 11:36 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
18Low
Where the price path tends to go next451 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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