Will GPT6 release before GTA6?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 99.0%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 99.0%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will GPT6 release before GTA6? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- October 9, 2026 at 10:08 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:38 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 12d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if OpenAI's Chat GPT6 releases to the general public before Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto 6 (the video game). (Identical market to: source market)
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if OpenAI's Chat GPT6 releases to the general public before Rockstar's Grand Theft Auto 6 (the video game). (Identical market to: source market)