ManifoldPlay moneyOtherDevelopingUpdated 5m ago

Will global far-right global regime cause prediction markets as concept to defunct and cease to exist before 2400?

As of Oct 16, 2026, 2:08 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 5.4% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 30 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.

Market probability
5.4%
Little changed over 24 hours

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, with only a few recent trades.

Price historyManifold

Not enough price history for this range yet.

Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Moderate

Consensus stability

Stable

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

100 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

30 mana

Total volume

30 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

Too few trades
100%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

1

Trades

1

Largest order

30 mana

30 mana traded across these 1 trades.

Too few recent trades to say who is setting this price.

Recent trade activity$30 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2400 UTC, a global far-right regime or political authority assumes power and directly causes prediction markets as a concept to become completely defunct and cease operating worldwide. This market resolves to NO if: January 1, 2400 UTC arrives and prediction markets continue to exist and operate in any form globally.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2400 UTC, a global far-right regime or political authority assumes power and directly causes prediction markets as a concept to become completely defunct and cease operating worldwide. This market resolves to NO if: January 1, 2400 UTC arrives and prediction markets continue to exist and operate in any form globally. Prediction markets cease to exist for reasons other than the enforcement of a global far-right regime (e.g., general technological collapse, replacement by superior coordination mechanisms, or bans enacted by non-far-right governance). If no objective global consensus or historical record exists by 2400 to verify the occurrence, the market resolves based on the prevailing consensus of available historical records at the time of resolution. Background Prediction markets use market mechanisms to aggregate information about future events. Historically, autocratic and totalitarian regimes have restricted independent information ecosystems, private financial trading, and decentralized forecasting tools. This market evaluates the long-term civilizational risk posed to the existence of prediction markets by potential global political consolidation under a far-right regime over a multi-century timeline.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2399 at 6:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 2:14 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
12Low
Where the price path tends to go next550 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0