As of Oct 11, 2026, 9:35 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 70.8% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 100 mana of pool liquidity.
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — the venue's feed doesn't report liquidity for this market, traded by a small group of accounts.
Source: Manifold price history
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
How hard is it to move this price?
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
0 mana
Total volume
70.3 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Whose opinion is this price?
Accounts
7
Trades
10
over 14h
Largest order
20 mana
65.6 mana traded across these 10 trades (last 14h).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, prior to January 1, 2030, a reputable research institution or statistical agency (such as Pew Research Center, the U.S. Census Bureau, Gartner, or McKinsey) publishes data showing that at least 50% of adults in a major global economy (e.g., the United States) use generative AI tools on a daily basis.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if, prior to January 1, 2030, a reputable research institution or statistical agency (such as Pew Research Center, the U.S. Census Bureau, Gartner, or McKinsey) publishes data showing that at least 50% of adults in a major global economy (e.g., the United States) use generative AI tools on a daily basis. Alternatively, the market will resolve to YES if generative AI features become natively integrated into primary personal computing or mobile operating systems (e.g., iOS, Android, Windows) and used daily by more than 50% of active users, as confirmed by official developer metrics or industry reports. If no primary statistical report or official data confirms that daily usage or daily native integration has reached the 50% threshold among the measured adult population before January 1, 2030, the market will resolve to NO. Note: The market creator may edit the specific survey source, geographic scope, or percentage threshold prior to resolution if a different explicit metric is desired. Background Since the public launch of large language models in late 2022, generative AI adoption has accelerated across consumer and enterprise sectors. By 2026, Pew Research Center found that 49% of U.S. adults used AI chatbots, with 24% using them at least daily. Similarly, workplace measurements showed over half of U.S. workers engaging with AI tools at least occasionally. Whether generative AI transitions from a frequently used software tool to a permanent daily baseline depends on long-term retention, OS-level integration, and sustained daily utility across the general population.
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 12, 12:26 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
24h volume
0 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
70.3 mana