Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
1K mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
240.7 mana
Total volume
240.7 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will exoskeleton hiking pants be available to purchase from REI before 2029?
As of Oct 30, 2026, 12:28 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 56.0% (up from 52.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 240.7 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 1K mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
56.0%
+3.6 percentage points
over 24 hours52.4% → 56.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (3.6 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
22%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
5
over 50 min
Largest order
50 mana
226 mana traded across these 5 trades (last 50 min).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$226 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 3.6 percentage points over the last 24 hours (52.4% → 56.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 1, 2029 at 2:59 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 30, 12:33 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
2Low
Where the price path tends to go next483 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
Secondary read: leaning toward Reacting to news.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H+3.624H+3.67D+3.6