Will Enter the Chronosphere win "Best Indie Game" at The Game Awards?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Enter the Chronosphere is officially announced as the winner of the "Best Indie Game" category (or a structurally equivalent category, such as "Best Independent Game") at the next ceremony of The Game Awards (expected in December 2026). Nomination Clause: If the game is not announced as an official final nominee in this category for the next ceremony, this market wil…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if Enter the Chronosphere is officially announced as the winner of the "Best Indie Game" category (or a structurally equivalent category, such as "Best Independent Game") at the next ceremony of The Game Awards (expected in December 2026). Nomination Clause: If the game is not announced as an official final nominee in this category for the next ceremony, this market will resolve to NO. Resolution Source: Resolution will be verified using the official winners list on the The Game Awards website or via the official live broadcast of the ceremony. Postponement: If the next Game Awards ceremony does not take place by March 31, 2027, the market will resolve at the discretion of the creator or be extended. Background Enter the Chronosphere is a tactical, turn-based bullet hell roguelike developed by Effort Star and published by Joystick Ventures. Following a demo period, the game launched into Steam Early Access on May 25, 2026. Its signature gameplay mechanic pauses time between player movements, blending puzzle-like strategic planning with dense bullet hell action. Early Access titles are eligible for nomination at The Game Awards depending on their critical reception, release state, and community impact.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 15, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 15, 11:44 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
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