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Currently 9% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 45/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if at any point before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk's net worth is officially reported or displayed at $2.00 trillion ($2,000,000,000,000) or more by either of the following primary trackers: Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List (forbes.com/real-time-billionaires) Bloomberg Billionaires Index (bloomberg.com/billionaires) If his recorded net worth on both trackers remains strictly below $2.00 trillion at all times prior to January 1, 2027, the market will resolve to NO. Additional Details: Intraday peaks recorded on Forbes' real-time tracking or daily close updates on Bloomberg's index are both valid for a YES resolution. If both tracking platforms cease operations or become permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on a consensus of major financial news outlets (e.g., Bloomberg, Forbes, Reuters, CNBC, or The Wall Street Journal). Background Following the initial public offering (IPO) of SpaceX on June 12, 2026, Elon Musk became the world's first official paper trillionaire. Fueled by SpaceX’s market debut and his stakes in Tesla, xAI, and other ventures, Musk's net worth reached an all-time peak of $1.45 trillion on June 16, 2026. Following a subsequent market correction in late June 2026, his wealth adjusted to approximately $1.1 trillion. This market estimates whether his total net worth will rebound and surpass the $2 trillion threshold before the end of 2026. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketDepth of the order book and volume
Mixed support. Interpret with some caution. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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