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Home/Politics/Will Democrats win the House but lose the Senate?
ManifoldPoliticsUpdated 8m ago

Will Democrats win the House but lose the Senate?

Market probability
40.1%
Little changed over 24 hours
64 days until the event deadline
Deadline: November 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Weak

The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

Medium

Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.

Recent trade activity$1 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesNovember 3, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 31, 2:31 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±23 pts.

Stale priceLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Stale price

The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ1

Liquidity

Ṁ1K

Total volume

Ṁ1

Category
Politics
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.124H+0.17D+0.1
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

13/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement2

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity38

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Price has not updated recently (stale)
  • Low recent movement on light volume — quote may lag new information

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next737 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~28h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Current probability
40.1%
7-day range
40.0% – 40.1%
Resolves
Nov 3, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

13/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+31
  • Price steadiness+29
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Limited history-8
Trust score13 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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