Will Colorado Proposition 137 (sporting goods tax for conservation) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if Colorado Proposition 137 (Designate Sporting Goods Sales Tax Revenue for Conservation) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the measure (statutory; SOS/Blue Book: 'Passes with a majority vote') Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: Sporting-goods sales tax revenue funds conservation/wildfire/recreation programs, exempt from revenue limits (Blue Book). NO: Revenue stays in the general budget subject to the revenue limit (Blue Book). Results: resolves on the result certified by Colorado Secretary of State (official statewide canvass); takes effect on Governor's proclamation. It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://leg.colorado.gov/ballots/direct-sporting-goods-sales-tax-revenue-for-conservation-2/files/blue-book