Will Claude Sonnet 5 be released before June 28?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 19.7%.
- Final market price
- 19.7%
- Event deadline
- June 27, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Claude Sonnet 5 be released before June 28? The final Manifold price was 19.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 19.7%.
- Market data as of
- June 30, 2026 at 2:12 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 27, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 113d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Anthropic officially releases or publicly launches a model designated as "Claude Sonnet 5" or "Claude 5 Sonnet" (or a model that is officially presented as the Sonnet tier of the Claude 5 generation) before June 28, 2026, at 12:00 AM (midnight) UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Anthropic officially releases or publicly launches a model designated as "Claude Sonnet 5" or "Claude 5 Sonnet" (or a model that is officially presented as the Sonnet tier of the Claude 5 generation) before June 28, 2026, at 12:00 AM (midnight) UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. To qualify as a release, the model must be accessible to general users (either through a free or paid tier on Claude.ai, or via the official Anthropic API, Amazon Bedrock, or Google Cloud Vertex AI) without requiring custom corporate vetting or invitation-only/closed developer beta programs. Verification Sources: Anthropic News: anthropic.com/news Anthropic API Changelog: docs.anthropic.com/en/release-notes/changelog Official Anthropic X/Twitter account: @AnthropicAI