Will Canada's new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods be in force by September 8, 2026?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Final market price
- 99.0%
- Event deadline
- September 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Canada's new retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods be in force by September 8, 2026? The final Manifold price was 99.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 11, 2026 at 10:35 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:41 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 8, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 39d ago
What this market actually measures
On 2026-08-21 U.S.-Canada trade talks collapsed. The U.S.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
On 2026-08-21 U.S.-Canada trade talks collapsed. The U.S. imposed 50% tariffs on roughly $20B of Canadian exports effective Saturday 2026-08-22. Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada would retaliate "dollar for dollar" with counter-tariffs **starting September 8, 2026**, covering steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp, paper and electronics. **Resolves YES** if, as of 11:59pm ET on 2026-09-08, the Government of Canada has brought into force any NEW surtax / counter-tariff on U.S.-origin goods announced after the 2026-08-21 collapse of talks — as evidenced by an official Department of Finance Canada notice (canada.ca) or an Order in Council / notice published in the Canada Gazette. **Resolves NO** otherwise — including if the measures are delayed past 2026-09-08, suspended, cancelled, or dropped as part of a negotiated settlement, or if only pre-existing (pre-2026-08-21) Canadian counter-tariffs remain in force. Pre-existing retaliatory tariffs already in force before 2026-08-21 do NOT count. A formal announcement without the measure actually being in force by the deadline does NOT count. Resolution source: Department of Finance Canada / Canada Gazette. Not resolved at creator discretion.