Will California Proposition 1 ($11.25B housing bond) be approved in the November 3, 2026 election?

This market resolves YES if California Proposition 1 (Authorizes Bonds for Housing Affordability Programs. Legislative Statute.) is approved by voters at the November 3, 2026 general election under its official approval rule: Simple majority of votes cast on the measure (Cal. Const. art. II §10(a); art. XVIII §4 for amendments). If conflicting measures both pass, the one with more yes votes prevails (art. II §10(b)). Only the November 3, 2026 vote counts; earlier votes on similar proposals do not. YES means voter approval at this election, not that the measure is later implemented. What the votes mean (official summary): YES: The state could borrow $11.25 billion to support veterans and affordable housing. NO: The state could not borrow $11.25 billion to support veterans and affordable housing. Results: resolves on the result certified by California Secretary of State (Statement of Vote, due by 38th day after election, i.e. 2026-12-11). It may resolve earlier once official returns or the Associated Press show the outcome cannot change and no recount is pending; if a recount or certified correction changes the outcome before resolution, the certified result controls. No vote: if the measure is removed from the ballot, a court orders its votes not to be counted, or the vote is postponed beyond November 3, 2026, the market resolves N/A. Later legal challenges: resolution follows voter approval as certified. A court later invalidating, enjoining or delaying the measure does not change the resolution. Starting probability: 50% is a neutral starting seed, not a forecast. Official source: https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/propositions/1/