Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
42 mana
Total volume
42 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Bitcoin's AUD price hit a new all-time high before the end of 2026?
As of Oct 16, 2026, 10:58 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 7.0% (down from 10.0% 24 hours earlier). It had 42 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
7.0%
−3 percentage points
over 24 hours10.0% → 7.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price; we can't yet see which accounts drove today's move.
Price historyManifold
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet.
Participation data isn't captured for this market yet, so we can't say how many accounts set this price.
What this market actually measures
This market predicts whether Bitcoin (BTC) will establish a new all-time high (ATH) in Australian dollars before the end of 2026. RESOLUTION RULES YES: Bitcoin's BTC/AUD price on CoinGecko exceeds its previous all-time high, as recorded immediately before this market was created, at any time before 1 January 2027, 00:00 UTC.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market predicts whether Bitcoin (BTC) will establish a new all-time high (ATH) in Australian dollars before the end of 2026. RESOLUTION RULES YES: Bitcoin's BTC/AUD price on CoinGecko exceeds its previous all-time high, as recorded immediately before this market was created, at any time before 1 January 2027, 00:00 UTC. NO: Bitcoin does not exceed that previous all-time high before the deadline. PRICE SOURCE https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/aud Only BTC/AUD prices count. USD prices and CoinSpot Instant Buy quotes do not count. The previous all-time-high price and timestamp must be recorded in this description at creation. The outcome must be supported by verifiable historical price data from CoinGecko. If the data is unavailable or ambiguous, resolution will be delayed until it can be verified.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 3.0 percentage points over the last 24 hours (10.0% → 7.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 16, 11:05 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next519 observed
- Illiquid / quiet96%
- Thin-liquidity spike2%
- Choppy / mean-reverting2%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~20h
PredictabilityStable
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H-3.07D-3.0
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