Will BAAJA become law?
As of Oct 4, 2026, 5:11 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 63.0% (up from 59.2% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ13.1 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
There's a new permitting reform bill called "Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act" aka BAAJA. If it becomes law (eg passed by senate and house and signed into law by the president) either before the 2026 midterms or during the lame duck session, then this resolves as Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
There's a new permitting reform bill called "Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act" aka BAAJA. If it becomes law (eg passed by senate and house and signed into law by the president) either before the 2026 midterms or during the lame duck session, then this resolves as Yes. If it or a similar bill doesn't get enacted until after the next congress is sworn in in January 2027, that is too late and counts as No. If there are trivial amendments but substantially this bill becomes law, that will still be Yes. If there are significant amendments I reserve the right to resolve it at 50% or some partial number. The name doesn't have to be this exact name. It's fine if it becomes law in a different way like a veto override or the thing where the president doesn't act and allows it to become law. I will not participate in this market since there's an element of judgement. If it becomes law this session but aspects of the law doesn't take effect until after a delay, that's fine, still counts as Yes. https://heatmap.news/politics/bipartisan-permitting-reform [link preview]
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 3.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (59.2% → 63.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesJanuary 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 4, 5:16 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet100%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Resolving soon.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ13.1
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ73
- Category
- Politics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 63.0%
- 7-day range
- 59.2% – 63.0%
- Resolves
- Jan 31, 2027