Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
612.2 mana
Total volume
1.6K mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Anthropic stock begin public trading on or before November 6, 2026?
As of Oct 25, 2026, 12:23 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 1.0% (down from 3.4% 24 hours earlier). It had 612.2 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
1.0%
−2.4 percentage points
over 24 hours3.4% → 1.0%
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — today's move came from a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
FormingHas the market settled at the new probability?
Movement has slowed (2.4 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
51%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
21
Trades
45
over 45 days
Largest order
362.2 mana
1.6K mana traded across these 45 trades (last 45 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$1.6K traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Reuters reported in early September 2026 that Anthropic's IPO launch has shifted toward mid-October at the earliest, with the prospectus expected in late September and the listing completed "days before" the U.S. midterm elections.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Reuters reported in early September 2026 that Anthropic's IPO launch has shifted toward mid-October at the earliest, with the prospectus expected in late September and the listing completed "days before" the U.S. midterm elections. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley are leading the offering; some investors have floated a valuation near $2 trillion. The question is whether that plan survives contact with the calendar. Resolves YES if Anthropic common stock (or equivalent listed security, including via direct listing) has its first day of trading on a U.S. public exchange (Nasdaq, NYSE, or equivalent) on or before November 6, 2026, 23:59 ET. Resolves NO otherwise — including if the offering is postponed, withdrawn, priced but not traded by the deadline, or if the company remains private. A private placement, tender offer, secondary-market transaction on a venue such as Forge or EquityZen, or a SPAC announcement without completed trading does not count. Primary sources (in order): Nasdaq/NYSE official listing notice; SEC EDGAR filings for Anthropic (424B4 / 8-A); Reuters or Bloomberg reporting of the first trade. If sources conflict, the exchange's own record of the first trading day governs. Resolution is by the named sources above, not by creator discretion. Reference reporting: CNBC, 2026-09-05
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 7, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 25, 12:34 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
17Low
Where the price path tends to go next508 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life ~40h
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H-2.424H-2.47D-2.4
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