Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 13.0%.
- Final market price
- 13.0%
- Event deadline
- June 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Anthropic restore access to Fable 5 for US customers by the end of June? The final Manifold price was 13.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 13.0%.
- Market data as of
- July 2, 2026 at 12:15 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:40 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- June 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 111d ago
What this market actually measures
The United States Government has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States. Anthropic is currently disabling Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
The United States Government has issued an export control directive to suspend all access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 by any foreign national, whether inside or outside the United States. Anthropic is currently disabling Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all customers. See https://www.anthropic.com/news/fable-mythos-access for more. I will resolve this to YES if Fable 5 is generally available to US customers by the end of June. If Fable is available only on the API but is available to anyone who pays those per-token costs, I will still resolve that as YES. If Fable is made available to all customers, regardless of nationality, this will also resolve YES. See also: https://manifold.markets/PhilipDowdell/will-anthropic-restore-access-to-fa