Will Anthropic release Claude Fable 5.2 or higher on October 9, 2026 (PT)?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Final market price
- 1.0%
- Event deadline
- October 9, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Anthropic release Claude Fable 5.2 or higher on October 9, 2026 (PT)? The final Manifold price was 1.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 1.0%.
- Market data as of
- October 12, 2026 at 10:08 AM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:38 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 9, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 9d ago
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if Anthropic publicly releases a new Claude Fable model with version 5.2 or higher (e.g. Fable 5.2, 5.5, 6) on October 9, 2026, Pacific Time (00:00–23:59 PT).
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if Anthropic publicly releases a new Claude Fable model with version 5.2 or higher (e.g. Fable 5.2, 5.5, 6) on October 9, 2026, Pacific Time (00:00–23:59 PT). Resolves NO otherwise, including if it was already released before October 9 PT. Counts as a release: - Anthropic officially announces it AND it is usable that day through at least one official channel: claude.ai / Claude apps (paid-only is fine), Claude Code, or the Claude API. - Staged rollouts count if at least some ordinary paying customers can select or call it by name on October 9 PT. - Country restrictions are fine if it is publicly available in at least one country. - A Fable-branded successor to Fable 5.1 counts even if Anthropic changes the numbering scheme. Does NOT count: - Announced on October 9 but only available later. - Invite-only, allowlisted or partner-only access, or a Mythos-only release (e.g. via Project Glasswing). - Leaks, rumors, model IDs found in code, or unofficial benchmarks. - Silent routing / A/B tests where the model is still labeled Fable 5.1, or an updated snapshot that keeps the 5.1 name. - New Opus, Sonnet or Haiku models. The day is decided by the timestamp of Anthropic's official announcement (anthropic.com/news, official Anthropic/Claude X accounts, or release notes). Background: Fable 5.1 shipped September 1, 2026. The rumored successor has been called both "Fable 5.2" and "Fable 5.5" (Opus and Sonnet are already on 5.5), hence "5.2+". As of October 8 there is no official announcement or model ID.